Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.