A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."